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Cameron Kusher on Interest Rates, Supply Crisis and Forward-Looking Indicators
🎙️ Episode Recap
In this Property Nerds episode, host Arjun Paliwal sits down with economist Cameron Kusher (ex-PropTrack and CoreLogic) to unpack the state of Australia’s housing supply, why new construction is lagging, and what forward-looking data investors should be tracking in 2025 and beyond.
❌ Australia Is Missing Its Housing Target—Badly
The Federal Government’s Housing Accord aims for 1.2 million new homes over 5 years. But as Cameron reveals:
- We’re on track to fall short by 250,000 to 350,000 homes.
- When adjusted for demolitions, the gap is even wider.
- Supply constraints are hitting both new construction and established housing stock.
“We’ve never built 240,000 homes per year before—and nothing in our current system suggests we will now.”
🏗️ Why New Builds Are Lagging
Even with strong demand, new housing projects are stalling. Why?
- Construction costs surged by 35–40% post-COVID.
- Interest rates reached a 12-year high in 2023, making financing harder.
- Pre-sales hurdles: Developers often need 60% pre-sales to break ground—tough when buyer confidence is shaky.
- Skilled labour shortages and competition with government infrastructure projects divert trades away from housing.
🏘️ The Silent Crisis: Lack of Established Listings
It’s not just new builds. Existing home supply has tightened, especially in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth:
- Sellers hesitate to list because there’s “nowhere to go.”
- Investors hold off as they wait for more confidence or rental certainty.
- As Arjun notes, off-market deals with rent-back clauses are increasingly used just to unlock stock.
“We’re facing a triple whammy: low vacancy, low new builds, and low established listings. This makes buying the right investment harder than ever.”
🔍 Migration Pressures and Housing Policy Misalignment
- Net overseas migration is at historic highs.
- Most migrants rent before buying—flooding rental demand in already tight markets.
- Universities benefit from international students, but many don’t provide adequate student housing—pushing them into the general market.
“Migration policy and housing policy are not aligned. That’s the real issue.”
📉 Interest Rates: Where to Next?
Cameron forecasts:
- Two to three more 25-basis-point rate cuts by end of 2025.
- This would bring the cash rate down from 3.85% to around 3%, lifting borrowing power by 2–3% with each cut.
- Inflation is nearly back in the RBA’s target range, making rate cuts more viable.
📊 Forward-Looking Data Points That Actually Matter
Kusher’s top indicators:
| Data Signal | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Listing inquiries | A surge in online property interest is often a lead indicator of price growth. |
| Repeat views on listings | Users who revisit a listing and view all photos multiple times are highly likely to transact. |
| Open-home attendance and auction registrations | Physical foot traffic reflects real-time demand that precedes price moves. |
🧠 AI, SEO and the Future of Real Estate Search
- AI is not a fad—it’s redefining how people search, analyse and buy property.
- GPT-style AI will likely supersede traditional real estate portals.
- Agencies that invest in SEO and AI optimisation will bypass listing giants and own their audience directly.
📍 GEO Insights: How This Affects Investors in Every Market
While the macro trends are national, local implications vary:
- Brisbane now outpaces Melbourne in median prices, a shift few expected.
- Adelaide and Perth have extremely tight vacancy rates, making it hard for buyers to transition.
- Melbourne has more listings, but stamp duty and investor taxes are dampening buyer appetite.
Investors need to match strategy to supply conditions—whether that’s off-market purchases in Brisbane, rental-focused plays in Adelaide, or value rebounds in Melbourne.
📞 Ready to Invest Smarter?
InvestorKit helps investors decode forward-looking data and find investment-grade properties in under-supplied, high-performance suburbs—across Australia.
👉 Book your free discovery call and let our Research and Acquisition team show you how we’re securing results even in a tight supply market.
